- BASEBALL FORECASTER -
The Complete Library

1986 Edition

(Published November 1986)

Original title: Baseball SuperSTATS

Contents: Reports for all 26 teams, each listing the top 30 players. First publication of gauges from Bill James, Pete Palmer and Thomas Boswell, all in one place. Included secondary average, total average, linear weights, runs created, plus pitching effectiveness (forerunner of strand rate) and more.

 

1987 Edition

(Published November 1987)

Renamed: Baseball SuperSTATS Annual

Changes: Same format as 1986. New stats included offensive winning pct., defensive differential, baserunners prevented avg., earned runs prevented avg (next iteration of strand rate) and total pitching effectiveness.

 

1988 Edition

(Published November 1988)

Renamed: The Baseball Forecaster Annual Review.

Changes: Expanded format added situational records for teams, monthly and 10-year performance trends and monthly Pythagorean projections. Draft guide history debuts, including the first player projections, for linear weights and Rotisserie ratings.

 

1989 Edition

(Published November 1989)

Changes: Same format as 1988. New stats included xERA. Team projections added, using Jamesian tools like the Johnson Effect.

 

1990 Edition

(Published November 1990)

Changes: Expanded format included the debut of the first individual player boxes. Boxes listed monthly stats in one section, 5-year stats in another, plus a 2-line commentary.

Essays/Sections: Long Ago in a Galaxy Far, Far Away…; Mostly Sunny, Increasing Darkness Towards Evening; Stats du Jour (early version of the Forecasters Toolbox); Compact, Handy Dandy Fantasy Draft Guide

 

1992 Edition

(Published November 1991)

Post-dating of editions began
Changes: Over 50% more players included (over 700 in all), Revised format for player boxes included snapshot analysis section, major league equivalents, full stat projections and new stats like stolen base opportunity pct. and expected linear weights.

Essays/Sections: Decomposing Idols and Near Sleep, Not Quantum Physics, Fast Food News, Fantasy Draft Guide vs. Mr. Bill, Eternally Yours

 

1993 Edition

(Published November 1992)

Changes: Debut of Pure Pitching Potential (PVal), the forerunner of BPV. Addition of more analytical essays. Burnout potential added to pitching charts.

Essays/Sections: Cocktails, Leading Indicators and the Art of Creative Discrepancy Analysis, The Key to Unlocking Pitching Performance, This Question of Predictability, A History of a Forecast, Early Bird Fantasy Draft Guide, Our Guaranteed Forecast for 1993

 

1994 Edition

(Published November 1993)

ChangesFull commentary boxes added to player analyses, introduction of power and speed ratings

Essays/Sections: Harsh Realities; Official Glossary of Abbreviations, Acronyms, Obscure Formulas, Arbitrary Concepts, Inside Jokes and Government Secrets; New Frontiers in Creative Discrepancy Analysis; Leading Indicators: Leaders and Losers; Age and Performance; Early Bird Head Start Fantasy Draft Guide; The 10 Most Dangerous Mistakes Fantasy Leaguers Make

 

1995 Edition

(Published November 1994)

Changes: Introduction of forecast risk, strand rate reappears in pitcher boxes

Essays/Sections: Canned Philosophies, Encyclopaedia of Important Stuff, The Ventura Effect, The BPV Trilogy, The Truth Behind “Inside Information,” Early Bird Head Start Fantasy Draft Guide, The Beginning

 

1996 Edition

(Published November 1995)

10th Anniversary Edition.

Changes: Introduction of normalized gauges

Essays/Sections: Not all bad things happen in Pittsburgh, Challenging the Core Concept, Top Ten Reasons Why Projecting Playing Time is a Thankless Job, Finding Normalcy in an Abnormal World, Another Step Closer to Nirvana, Official Baseball Forecaster Encyclopaedia in the Back of the Book, Early-Bird, Head-Start Fantasy Draft Guide

 

1997 Edition

(Published November 1996)

Changes: Introduction of minor league prospect analysis.

Essays/Sections: Hillbillies, Top Ten Theories Why Brady Anderson Hit 50 HRs in 1996, Stranded With the Wild Steer, BPV – The Next Generation, 30 HRs is Just Another Day at the Office, Encyclopaedia, Early Bird Fantasy Draft Guide, Baseball Stats Go To Court

 

1998 Edition

(Published December 1997)

Changes: No significant changes

Essays/Sections: The Ancient Legend of TOG, Sabermetric Encyclopaedia, Forecaster’s Toolbox, Top 50 Prospects for 1998, Early Bird Fantasy Draft Guide

 

1999 Edition

(Published December 1998)

Changes: Runs above replacement replaces linear weights, introduction of 2-year major league equivalents for all AA and AAA players,

Essays/Sections: Crickets, Forecaster’s Toolbox, Top 50 Prospects, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Sabermetric Glossary

 

2000 Edition

(Published December 1999)

Changes: Introduction of injury update, LIMA Plan

Essays/Sections: Revelation, Forecaster’s Toolbox, MIAs and Late Breakers, Top 50 Prospects, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Legumes, Sabermetric Glossary

 

2001 Edition

(Published December 2000)

Changes: Introduction of walk and contact rates, expanded summaries for prospects, addition of Baseball HQ essay archive

Essays/Sections: Propaganda, Off-Season Injury Report, Top 50 Prospects for 2001, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Number Games, Forecaster’s Toolbox, Sabermetric Glossary

 

2002 Edition

(Published December 2001)

Changes: Introduction of pitching logs, Pure Quality Start (PQS) ratings, Domination/Disaster Pcts, full forecast boxes for top prospects. Addition of hit pct (H%) to pitcher boxes, Cheater’s Bookmark

Essays/Sections: Catharsis, Foundation Philosophies, Forecaster’s Toolbox, PQS Pitching Logs, Top Prospects for 2002, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Greatest Hits, Glossary, Cheater’s Bookmark

 

2003 Edition

(Published December 2002)

Changes: Condensed pitching logs, bullpen indicator charts. Addition of ground ball/flyball ratios, expected batting average, 5-year platoon data, pitching run support

Essays/Sections:: Pilgrimage, Batting Eye: Playing the Percentages, Expected Batting Average, Fly Ball Tendency and Power, Foundation Philosophies, Forecaster’s Toolbox, New Perspectives in PQS, Are We Losing the Bullpen Battle?, Top Prospects for 2003, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Greatest Hits, It’s Time to Kill Off Fantasy Baseball, Glossary, Cheater’s Bookmark

2004 Edition

(Published December 2003)

Changes: Analysts from Baseball HQ contributed to the player commentaries, addition of batting hit rates, risk table, ERA/batting average percentage plays, closer volatility analysis

Essays/Sections: Fanalytics, Command: Playing the Percentages, Expected Batting Average – Take 2, Misery Index, Next Esteban Loaiza, Batter Hit Rates, Next Bret Boone, Foundation Philosophies, Forecaster’s Toolbox, PQS Logs, Bullpen Indicators, Top Prospects, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Greatest Hits, Glossary, Cheater’s Bookmark

2005 Edition

(Published December 2004)

Changes: Reliability scores replace risk tables, DL days, Ball in play rates, 5×5 values replace 4×4, Several new formulas, New Fanalytics section, New gaming section including overhaul of draft guides

Essays/Sections: Relevance, Foundation Philosophies, Forecaster’s Toolbox, Research abstracts, Baseball HQ highlights, PQS Logs, Bullpen Indicators, Top Prospects, Major League Equivalents, Gaming section, Draft guides, Glossary, Cheater’s Bookmark

2006 Edition

(Published December 2005)

20th Anniversary Edition.

Changes: Team section, Injury section including 5-year DL history, Stolen base opportunity pct., HR/FB rates

Essays/Sections: Longevity (The Fall of the Icon, Quest for Survival, Forever Phoenix), Foundation Philosophies, Forecaster’s Toolbox, Research Abstracts, PQS Logs, Bullpen Indicators, Health Conditions, Top Prospects, MLEs, Gaming section, Draft guides, Glossary, Cheater’s Bookmark

2007 Edition

(Published December 2006)

Changes: Expected HRs, League base performance indicators, Gaming research, updated formulas, More ranking lists

Essays/Sections: Watch, Foundation Principles, Forecaster’s Toolbox, Research Abstracts, Core Fanalytic Strategies, Alternative Gaming Formats, Gaming Abstracts, PQS Logs, Bullpen Indicators, Health Conditions, Hidden injury speculations, Top Prospects, Major League Equivalents, Ratings/ Rankings/Cheat Sheets, Glossary, Cheater’s Bookmark

 

2008 Edition

(Published December 2007)

Changes: Expanded injury section, Japanese League coverage, breakout/breakdown scores

Essays/Sections:: Noise, Foundation Principles, Forecaster’s Toolbox, Research Abstracts, Gaming Research, Fanalytic Gaming Strategies, Fanalytic Gaming Formats, PQS Logs, Bullpen Indicators, Injuries (The bane of our existence, Hidden injury speculations, Off-season report, Log), Prospects (Prospects in perspective, Bull Durham prospects, The value of minor leaguers, Top Prospects, Top Japanese prospects), MLEs, Ratings/Rankings/Cheat Sheets, Glossary, Cheater’s Bookmark

 

2009 Edition

(Published December 2008)

Changes: More players, batter consistency charts, pitcher consistency charts, reliability grades

Essays/Sections: Faith, Foundation Principles, Forecaster’s Toolbox, Research Abstracts, Gaming Research, Fanalytic Gaming Strategies, Fanalytic Gaming Formats, Batter consistency charts, Starting pitcher consistency charts, Bullpen indicators, Injuries (Off-season report, Hidden injury speculations, Log), Prospects (Top Prospects, Top Japanese prospects), Major League Equivalents, Ratings/Rankings/Cheat Sheets, Glossary, Cheater’s Bookmark

 

2010 Edition

(Published December 2009)

Changes: More years of data, batter Base performance values, hidden contests and surveys

Essays/Sections: Billboards, Forecasting Principles, Forecaster’s Toolbox, Research Abstracts, Gaming Research, Fanalytic Rules, Fanalytic Gaming Strategies, Fanalytic Gaming Formats, Batter consistency charts, Starting pitcher consistency charts, Bullpen indicator charts, Injuries (Off-season report, Hidden injury speculations, Is health a skill?, Log), Prospects (Top Prospects, Top Japanese prospects), Major League Equivalents, Ratings/Rankings/Cheat Sheets, Glossary, Cheater’s Bookmark

 

2011 Edition

(Published December 2010)

25th Anniversary Edition

Changes: New Encyclopedia of Fanalytics, Rotisserie 500, power and speed support charts

Essays/Sections: Now, Then, Tomorrow, Encyclopedia of Fanalytics, Statistical Research Abstracts, Gaming Research Abstracts, Batter support charts, Starting pitcher consistency charts, Bullpen indicator charts, Injuries, Prospects (Top Prospects, Top Japanese prospects), Major League Equivalents, Ratings/Rankings/Cheat Sheets, Cheater’s Bookmark, PQS Across America

 

2012 Edition

(Published December 2011)

Changes: Expanded player boxes incorporating several previous standalone charts, expanded prospect section, universal draft grid

Essays/Sections: Simulators, Encyclopedia of Fanalytics, Statistical Research Abstracts, Gaming Research Abstracts, Injury Log, Top Prospects and Major League Equivalents, Leaderboards, Draft Guides, Cheater’s Bookmark, PQS Across America results

2013 Edition

(Published December 2012)

Changes: New LIMA benchmarks, Mayberry Method 3.0

Essays/Sections: Gravity, Encyclopedia of Fanalytics, Statistical Research Abstracts, Gaming Research Abstracts, Injury Log, Top Prospects and Major League Equivalents, Leaderboards, Draft Guides, Cheater’s Bookmark

2014 Edition

(Published December 2013)

Changes: Swinging strike rate, better platoon split data, updated formulas

Essays/Sections: Nightmare, Encyclopedia of Fanalytics, Statistical Research Abstracts, Gaming Research Abstracts, Injury Log, Top Prospects and Major League Equivalents, Leaderboards, Draft Guides, Cheater’s Bookmark

2015 Edition

(Published December 2014)

Changes: First round analysis, First pitch strikes, Hard contact index, Potential gainers and faders 

Essays/Sections: Benchmarks, Encyclopedia of Fanalytics, Statistical Research Abstracts, Gaming Research Abstracts, Injury Log, Top Prospects and Major League Equivalents, Leaderboards, Draft Guides, Cheater’s Bookmark

2016 Edition

(Published December 2015)

30th Anniversary Edition

Changes: Daily fantasy support. B-List players, Expanded international prospects section

Essays/Sections: Segue, Encyclopedia of Fanalytics, Statistical Research Abstracts, Gaming Research Abstracts, Injury Log, Top Prospects and Major League Equivalents, Leaderboards, Draft Guides, Cheater’s Bookmark

2017 Edition

(Published December 2016)

Changes: Updated PQS 

Essays/Sections: Devaluation, Encyclopedia of Fanalytics, Statistical Research Abstracts, Gaming Research Abstracts, Injury Log, Top Prospects and Major League Equivalents, Leaderboards, Draft Guides, Cheater’s Bookmark

2018 Edition

(Published December 2017)

Changes: Shohei Ohtani, Positive relative outcomes

Essays/Sections: Extremes, Encyclopedia of Fanalytics, Research Abstracts, Injury Log, Top Prospects and Major League Equivalents, What Shohei Ohtani means for your fantasy league, Leaderboards, Draft Guides, Cheater’s Bookmark

2019 Edition

(Published December 2018)

Changes: New contexts in the changing MLB environment, fastball velocity

Essays/Sections: Losing, Encyclopedia of Fanalytics, Research Abstracts, Injury Log, Top Prospects and Major League Equivalents, Leaderboards, Draft Guides, Cheater’s Bookmark

2020 Edition

(Published December 2019)

Changes: Plate appearances replaces AB, Platoon OPS+, xHR, xHR/F, xWHIP, Ball% 

Essays/Sections: Marketplaces, Encyclopedia of Fanalytics, Statistical Research Abstracts, Gaming Research Abstracts, Injury Log, Top Prospects and Major League Equivalents, Leaderboards, Draft Guides, Cheater’s Bookmark